Route Development & Rumours

[lbaspotter]

Possibly a certain Irish airline in green with a new route next year... And the Guernsey route we already know about might be ready for announcement

Cheers stevolba, Lets hope both these routes happen...

 

[lbaspotter]

Good news I think. After reading Chancellor George Osborne spending review statement document the Government has outline plans to invest £7m in new air routes "Regional Connectivity Fund". It looks like Flybe have been given approval for funding to establish a Leeds/Bradford - Newquay route even though they (Flye) have just announced a Newquay route from down road at Doncaster-Sheffield. Meanwhile it looks like bmi regional may have failed with its funding bid to establish a Doncaster-Frankfurt route.

Routes included in the spending review document:
Carlisle - Belfast = Stobart Air Daily return
Carlisle - Southend = Stobart Air Daily return
Carlisle - Dublin = Stobart Air Daily return
Edinburgh - Oxford = Links Air* Double-daily weekdays and daily return Sunday
Dundee - Amsterdam = Flybe Daily return
Derry - Dublin = City Wings Double-daily return weekdays, single return weekends
Leeds/Bradford - Newquay = Flybe Daily return (MWFSS) - summer and 3 daily returns (MFS) - winter
Norwich - Newcastle = Links Air* Weekday double-daily return
Norwich - Exeter = Flybe Daily return
Southampton - Munich = Flybe Double-daily return weekdays, single return, weekend
Southampton - Lyon = Flybe Double-daily return weekdays, single return weekend

*Routes listed to be operated by Links Air will most likely not happen as they have been grounded by the UK CAA.

These 4 routes made it into the second round, but they are not mentioned in today's spending review document
Durham TV - Belfast = Links Air Double-daily return weekdays, single return Sunday
Doncaster Sheffield, - Frankfurt = BMI regional Weekday return
Norwich - Charles de Gaulle, = Flybe Daily return
Norwich - Dublin = Flybe Double-daily return weekdays, single return weekend

Meanwhile After the first round, these 4 routes had already dropped out:
Derry - Birmingham = Flybe weekday return
Leeds/Bradford - Edinburgh = Flybe double daily return weekdays, single daily return weekends
Oban - Glasgow = no operator specified 2 daily return flights (MFS)
Oban - Barra = no operator specified 3 daily flights (FS)

 

[Bigman]

Wouldn't it be nice if, given that Donny have got the FlyBe Newquay, that we get their intended BMI to Frankfurt instead!! Would help BMI if they do indeed need to base an ERJ at LBA for Extrajet. Might as well base 2 at LBA.

 

[whoshotjimmi]

Can someone please explain to me how Flybe can offer DSA - NQY on an E Jet with no funding but need funding for LBA - NQY on (what will probably be) a Q400?

 

[Bigman]

Damned if I can explain it either!! Seems a bit daft if you ask me.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Can someone please explain to me how Flybe can offer DSA - NQY on an E Jet with no funding but need funding for LBA - NQY on (what will probably be) a Q400?

It seems that Flybe has put in these aircraft at what appear to be unlikely bases as a means of utilising their unloved E195s. They did the same at Cardiff earlier this year, not much more than 12 months after they had pulled all but one of their CWL routes saying they were loss-making.

The Wales Assembly Government voted to make available £13 million over three years for route development and this has undoubtedly been the catalyst for Flybe's u-turn at CWL. One can only assume that some sort of deal has also occurred at DSA although I can't see how public money would be involved there.

It may be that either the airline and LBA could not agree a deal (if one was ever proposed) or, perhaps more likely, Flybe judged that although LBA looked prima facie a better bet than DSA the former already has strong and established Jet2, Monarch and Ryanair presences with which Flybe doesn't feel it can compete. The same reasoning probably took them to CWL instead of BRS where the latter has a large easyJet and a strong Ryanair presence.

 

[a300boy]

They will probably run both services until the subsidy runs out then offer Leeds passengers the option of travelling from Doncaster as the Leeds service is being terminated. It would not be the first time this strategy has been used.

 

[White Heather]

Personally I will be surprised if DSA to Newquay lasts more than one season, so I can't see that happening. I will also be surprised if Flybe actually start up a route to Newquay from Leeds now they are doing it from DSA. I suspect they will be reliant upon all of the Yorkshire region using the DSA flight to make it pay. I hope to be proved wrong, but if they did it, where will the aircraft doing the flight be based? Maybe a W leg using the DSA based Embraer?

 

[stars&sids]

As a DSA ( & LBA ) supporter, I hate to say it, but I don't think the DSA Newquay route will last as long as even one season! It is the one Flybe route that I don't think will work from DSA. Even before this announcement it was looking like a bit of an odd one.

 

[Aviador]

Pre recession Air Southwest flights from Leeds used to be busy with business and leisure passengers. The flights were nearly always full. I don't see why the route can't be successful once again.

 

[Seasider]

Damned if I can explain it either!! Seems a bit daft if you ask me.

I'm with you on that one bigman.

 

[Seasider]

If Flybe do decide to take the subsidy to operate LBA-NQY, transfer DSA pax to LBA, then they could use the "released" Embraer to operate on a "sun route".
I've stopped trying to understand Flybe's route strategy ages ago.

 

[White Heather]

Re: Route Developmentir

I sometimes wonder if Flybe understand their own strategy! For an airline that has been struggling financially, they are taking some risks. And starting up a base at DSA is a risk - as it would have been if they had set up a new base at any airport. They have a history in recent years of setting up bases at airports and then pulling them again. Failed gambles cost money - lots of it.

 

[cmj]

Pre recession Air Southwest flights from Leeds used to be busy with business and leisure passengers. The flights were nearly always full. I don't see why the route can't be successful once again.

Didn't most of them call at Bristol on the way? I have some recollection that they had 2 per day from Manchester / Leeds to Bristol to Newquay / Plymouth.

So say the morning would be MAN-BRS-NQY and LBA-BRS-PLH, the evening MAN-BRS-PLH / LBA-BRS-NQY. If you wanted to do the other one you changed planes in Bristol. I don't think I ever needed to do the change, so don't know how it worked.

it seemed a good way to allow more journeys, and of course you picked up the LBA/MAN-BRS and BRS-NQY/PLH markets too. Sadly PLH airport is no more - would would think something similar could be done with NQY and EXT.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

So say the morning would be MAN-BRS-NQY and LBA-BRS-PLH, the evening MAN-BRS-PLH / LBA-BRS-NQY. If you wanted to do the other one you changed planes in Bristol. I don't think I ever needed to do the change, so don't know how it worked.

They used to park the DH 8-300s side by side on the apron at BRS but there must have been problems if one was very late. Given the fairly short turn-around times I surmised that passengers (and luggage) were walked from one aircraft to the other. Never did it either and don't know how many people did.

As for LBA-BRS, I suspect the hourly train service between the two cities provides more flexibility than a couple of flights a day and this has taken its toll on flights. Sad for the aviation industry but it seems that the domestic UK 'short haul' provision has declined noticeably in the past few years. 'Long haul' domestic such as southern England to Scotland seems as buoyant as ever.

 

[Aviador]

Thanks TheLocalYokel.

The domestic air travel scene has changed immensely because of rail travel but at the same time we have seen some astronomical year on year increases in rail ticket fares. The government has made no pledge to curtail these huge increases and with oil prices at an all time low now is probably a good time to reinstate some domestic air services.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I agree about rail ticket prices - they can be extremely high especially for popular periods and busy times of the day. The snag is that it would take an easyJet-type airline to operate a LBA-BRS if fares were to be set at a reasonable level for the passenger and there must be a question mark over enough people travelling to sustain a 156-seat A 319, let alone a 180-seat A 320. Flybe would be a better bet probably in terms of aircraft size but their fares might not be as low.

An airline such as bmi regional would be charging more than the rail fare if its fare prices on other routes are a guide.

 

[White Heather]

There might be a regular Cross Country service from Leeds to Bristol - but, it takes in the region of 3 hours each way, is not that reliable (often late, frequently full) and for a day trip to Bristol a plane is much more attractive in my view. Particularly for those folk not living in Leeds who have to get a train into Leeds first, adding more time on to their journey. Total travelling time by train from Leeds to Bristol and back, minimum 6 hours plus however long it takes to get to and from Leeds to pick up the Cross Country train. Total travelling time by air there and back is 2 hours plus travelling time to and from the airport. No brainer for business use in my view. By air every time.

Times like this I wish there were still Shorts 360s about as they could operate routes like this full and very profitably, as demonstrated in the past by Capital Airlines. And yes I know they went bust, but that was not due to the performance of the airline itself, and the Bristol route did well.

 

[Tim R-T-C]

Of course a lot of the high train ticket prices come from walk-up travel which is very difficult to match for airlines (even if they offer them, most potential passengers wouldn't consider looking for a next day flight). Advance train fares can be a lot cheaper and comparable to advance purchased plane tickets.

Travelling time to and from the airports is a mixed bag - if you live near a West Yorkshire railway station it will probably be much easier to get to and from Leeds station than to drive to the airport. Don't forget you need to add on the hour recommended to pass through security etc. at each end and the time getting into the city at the other end from the airport, while you can walk off the train at Leeds or Bristol into the middle of the city.

Delays and cancellations are also a mixed offering - while Crosscountry trains are highly prone to delays due to their lengthy routes (many Leeds to Bristol services come down from Scotland and run through to the deep Southwest), their frequency does somewhat ameliorate the risk of cancellation. If you are on a day trip, having to take a later train to come home is usually a better choice than being put up on a hotel to wait for the next day's flight.

 

[White Heather]

There have been no official announcements yet, but it is looking hopeful that we might well be getting the Flybe route from Newquay from Spring 2016, as there is an article in a local Cornwall paper stating this route is to commence, whilst there is another in the Ilkley Gazette stating that the new route is welcomed by the relevant Government Minister.