Route Development & Rumours

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Potential Routes

An NYC route with a 'flag' carrier is more likely in the medium term IMO, not sure of the 787 capabilities but would that not be suited more to airports like LBA?

A 787 ought to be be fine from LBA. According to Boeing the 787 can reach the west coast of the USA without load penalty from Bristol's runway which is shorter and almost as high as LBA's. TOM are to operate 787s from Bristol one of whose summer routes is Cancun in Mexico (currently operated by a 763 with a fuel stop at MAN on the outbound).

Incidentally, the Continental B 757-200 never had a problem operating to EWR from BRS in the five and a half years of the route's operation, so LBA should be fine with that too.

As for Emirates, they have no 787s on order so far as I can ascertain but they have ordered up to 50 A350s.

 

[White Heather]

Re: Potential Routes

Based on what has been said by the airport MD at Consultative meetings, the 787 is the answer to many of LBA's problems, since it apparently has the performance required to operate long haul off our runway. It is also the reason why Bridgepoint have no intention of extending the runway, despite the recommendation to do so contained within the Government White Paper. So, lets look forward to the 787 and hope a lot of airlines buy iti!!

 

[T67A]

Re: Potential Routes

White Heather with regards to the Government's White Paper for extending the runway, would the Government help financialy if Bridgepoint change their minds and extend the runway?. I ask this question because in the Masterplan there is a proposal to extend the runway.

 

[a300boy]

Re: Potential Routes

Dont forget the A350 which Emirates are receiving it can do all the B767 can and more in theory. I agree these aircraft are the saving grace for Lbia but the extension and parallel taxiways would be a massive improvement coupled with an upgrade to our Ils on runway 14. If they ask for donations toward the cost I would do so.

 

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

Part of the airport's planning obligations is to review and update the airport masterplan sometime during 2011. All parties accept the existing one is out of date so I would expect some changes when the updated one is produced.

The airport is privately owned so there will be no public money for anything onsite. The best chance for help from the governemnt will be in the form of allowing lower levels of APD to airports where there is significant passenger and economic leakage to other parts of the country. i.e. lower levels of APD for LBA services compared to MAN for instance.

In terms of the argument that airlines won't dilute MAN to operate from LBA then it's an interesting point as clearly some will and some won't. I'd estimate that once the summer season kicks in, around 70% of the seat capacity being offered from LBA is with airlines or tour operators who offer the same destination from MAN. Large elements of the Jet2 programme, PIA, klm, flybe, Thomas Cook and parts of the Ryanair network are all duplicated between LBA and MAN. On the flip side, Lufthansa, Air France, Monarch at and others don't serve anywhere other than MAN across the whole of the North. Clearly the whole rationale for investment in LBA is that the owners believe they can evidence the success of those airlines that do serve both airports and tempt others to follow suit. Obvioulsy the MAG business model is based on trying to get as many passengers from further afield to use their airport as the North West alone doesn't provide enough of a traffic feed to support their ambitions. It will be an interesting battle.

 

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

But the thing with the Emirates A350, it isnt really going to 'enfore' a decision by them to serve LBA, as the A330 is quite capable of operating a route to LBA as it is.

Im sorry for seeming so pro-MAN, but I have a very good source at EK, and I can categorically tell you now that EK have, and never have had any intention of serving LBA.

The airport simply hasnt got the full profile that EK are looking for. This includes a large lounge space for the J class cabin, cargo forwarding facilities and the catchement (which unfortunatly for LBA, MAN currently has the full catchment for EK that LBA would fall within).

As for LBA having a large proportion of routes similar to MAN, they are more charter destinations than business destinations, take a few Jet2 city routes, KLM and PIA, and that does make a difference. If you could get Lufthansa at LBA, then they would be rocking.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Potential Routes

The airport simply hasnt got the full profile that EK are looking for. This includes a large lounge space for the J class cabin, cargo forwarding facilities and the catchement

Yet EK flies from NCL.

Is there that much difference between the profile of the LBA and NCL catchments? If anything I would have thought that LBA has the edge.

I write as someone who has no close knowledge of the northern aviation scene and of MAN, LBA and NCL I've only ever used NCL, albeit several times in recent years though not with EK - just the short Orange hop from Bristol.

 

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

No. Despite what some say, due to MAN LBA doesn't have a large catchment as NCL, cargo at LBA is awkward at the best of times, and the runway is only just suitable at LBA, whereas NCL has no problem with a fully loaded B773. Therefore NCL has the edge.

 

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

I think Wanna_Rep is falling into the trap of assuming that if EK operated from, say, LBA, that it would only attract passengers who currently use EK at MAN. This is far too simplistic. The pitch the airport are making is to highlight that it would appeal to a range of passengers currently traveling by road to London, using other alliances to connect to points South and East of DXB as well as stimulating new traffic growth. The strength of the VFR market to Pakistan from around LBA is of particular appeal as well. Also, if there are enough passengers from around LBA currently using EK from MAN that it makes EK concerned about canibalisation then, by default, they have to consider the risk of other alliances offering connections from LBA that could be a risk to this traffic.

In volume terms, the EK service from NCL is little different to that carried by KLM from Leeds. Rather than 4 departures a day carrying 60 passengers, EK shift the same amount on one departure. Outside of LHR, there really is nothing special about what EK do or the passengers they carry and I speak as an EK frequent flyer about to take another trip with them in a few weeks. By and large, it's folk going on their hols or off to see friends and family. They are cheap and efficient and the on-board service is pretty good, especially with youngsters. The UK leisure market is a strong one for them and as connecting services from UK regional airports are hampered by slot congestion at LHR/FRA/CDG etc then EK will grow and add capacity in the UK over the next few years. Anyone suggesting that they know exactly how this will pan out in 2015-2020 is clearly better informed than most and certainly better informed than some well respected and long in the tooth industry professionals at a number of airports in the UK who are in discussion with EK about tapping into their expansion

 

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

No. Despite what some say, due to MAN LBA doesn't have a large catchment as NCL.

MAN doesn't change the size of the LBA catchment area. The presence of MAN means there is a competitor for that catchment.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Potential Routes

No. Despite what some say, due to MAN LBA doesn't have a large catchment as NCL, cargo at LBA is awkward at the best of times, and the runway is only just suitable at LBA, whereas NCL has no problem with a fully loaded B773. Therefore NCL has the edge.

Are you sure about that world_rep?

The catchment area within the 2 hour drive-time to LBA is actually greater than catchment area within the 2 hour drive-time to MAN.

Granted the catchment area within the 1 hour drive-time to MAN is larger than LBA's but not by that much.

The NCL catchment area is significantly less than both LBA and MAN.

Source: Department for Transport White Paper for Aviation.

As for the runway and cargo.

The runway at NCL is slightly longer than LBA's runway at 2329m so aircraft will have less restrictions using NCL as opposed to LBA where the runway is 2250m. This is dependent on many variables such as the aircraft type, the destination and fuel burn. I think you will find that a Boeing 767-300 will suffer from restrictions at NCL as well as LBA. This will of course differ for different aircraft types.

Cargo facilities are limited at both LBA and NCL. The majority of cargo at LBA is transported by road because there's too much to be able to send it by air from LBA. Pakistan International Airlines has proved the airports capabilities of handling container freight so there's no reason why LBA could handle more.

 

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

When I was talking about cartchment, I meant from EK,s perspective. To them, NCL's catchment is bigger than LBA due to MAN being down the road to LBA, which in effect DOES shrink the catchment area as the closer you get to MAN, the more people will choose that due to the superior service of the lounges, A380 and multiple daily flights. The simple fact is though, EK will not be coming to LBA, well at least not in their profile anyway.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Potential Routes

Thanks for explaining what you meant world_rep, I agree to some extent what you say, but similar services operate side by side at other airports such as GLA and EDI.

 

[a300boy]

Re: Potential Routes

Why would Emirate buy the A350 if they did not intend to look at the regional airfields with limiting runways all over the world. I suspect they may still be seen at Lbia if our management have anything to do with it. Time will tell.

 

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

The A350 is not specifically being brought for 'short op runways', its more to do with the fact the A330 and B772 are all being retired, so that will mean the smallest aircraft EK will have is the B77LR, and that will not get sent to a 'short hop' route like LBA (yes SOME euro airports are seeing it due to sown time and inefficiencies in the fleet, but as the B77L fleet grows, that will dissapear). Other than that, The A340 is the next one up, and for some reason, its just an aircraft EK have never ever sent to the UK on a regular basis (LGW has seen 1 or 2, but not many).
With all this in mind, this means that the smallest plane EK will be sending to the UK next year will be the B773, and LBA just cant take that.

Anyway, Ive said it before, EK have no interest in LBA, simple as that. My source has his finger well on the pulse at EK, and has never been wrong in the 15+ years Ive known him.

 

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

Oh I forgot to add, GLA/EDI do have some similar services, but EK dont, and this is where the main comparisin lies. EDI has the same problem as EK in that its too close to GLA and thats where EK have pledged allegance.

 

[a300boy]

Re: Potential Routes

I doubt we are going to change your mind on the subject and I probably agree too, however I have seen many changes of policy over the years. The senior Thomson Rep for the Uk told me many years ago they would never base an aircraft at Leeds but they did for a few years. So regardless of the evidence I still think it could happen.

 

[User0001]

Re: Potential Routes

The whole discussion about EK started when I mentioned what the airport management are planning for the longer term. That point seems to have been lost in the subsequent discussion. No one, the LBA management team included, believe that EK have any plans for LBA operations this year, next year or even the year after. So, correct - EK have no interest in LBA at the moment. Beyond that, then who knows how the market for connecting passengers from the North of England will develop or indeed how individual airlines will choose to serve that market. Recent history tells us that the market for passenger air services in the North is dynamic and that competetion between airports is high and that, as such, monopolies don't last long. At the moment, MAN has a near monoploy in terms of available seats to hub airports but that is unlikely to last.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Potential Routes

[rimg]http://www.tour-smart.co.uk/images/dynamicImages/image/Cape%20Verde%20Islands/cape%20verde%20lifestyle.jpg[/rimg]
Image: tour-smart.co.uk

Image: static.guim.co.uk

Cape Verde is definitely a destination that I would personally like to see at LBA, if the airport is ever in a position to offer it in the future.

The potential of a Cape Verde flight could be a step closer for Leeds Bradford airport after Thomson Airways recently announced flights operating from Bristol airport. The destination is up and coming and it could well become a viable replacement to Sharm El Sheik after the troubles there.

Image: worldatlas.com

The fact that Bristol airport has a slightly shorter runway than that at Leeds Bradford airport proves it shouldn't be a problem getting there. In fact it's probably a slightly shorter distance than to SSH.

 

[White Heather]

Re: Potential Routes

With regard to the possibility of Emirates ever coming to LBA - all I would say, perhaps to close the discussion (since none of us, even World_Rep's informant actually know what might happen in the future) is that for years, and despite much political lobbying, PIA had no interest in operating from LBA, despite Bradford being the place from which most of their MAN passengers started or ended their journeys. All that changed once Swedair, and then Shaheen, proved the demand was there and MAN's PIA passenger numbers started to be affected, and they then came to LBA and the service is a success alongside the MAN service.

If it happened with PIA, then it could happen with Emirates. Never say never. If LBA management cannot get Emirates to Dubai they will go for someone else, and if Emirates then find their passenger numbers from MAN being diminished due to a competing airline flying from LBA, we will see then whether they are interested in LBA or not.