Route Development & Rumours

[White Heather]

@Aviador, half the negativity comes from LBA supporters, not LBA haters. Anyone who thinks it is conceivable that an airline may serve the ME3 hubs is referred to as a numpty, being from, or living on fantasy island,or in fantasy land, as it’s all pie in the sky.

And that must include LBA management then too, because they seem quite sure that within the next few years, post terminal expansion, there is a real possibility of LBA serving one of the middle east hubs at least.

If only they looked on here first! They could have saved themselves so much wasted time chasing lost causes.

 

[XEROX]

Been lurking for a while, but thought id chime in re: EK, and use KLM as an example at Leeds Bradford.

While both Emirates and KLM may serve a regional airport like Leeds Bradford with a similar total daily seat capacity (~300 seats), their business models and revenue strategies differ significantly. KLM operates multiple daily short-haul flights to Amsterdam, primarily feeding its European and primary transatlantic network. In contrast, Emirates would operate a single daily flight on a widebody aircraft such as the A350 or 777, capitalising on its super hub-and-spoke model through Dubai. The viability for Emirates comes not from local point-to-point traffic, but from the high-yield, long-haul connecting traffic across its vast global network. A significant portion of revenue is generated from passengers traveling beyond Dubai—to Asia, Africa, Australasia, and the Middle East—making a daily widebody service sustainable even at a smaller regional airport.

 

[LBA4EVER]

Can we stop with the constant berating and mocking of other users? This is supposed to be a route development thread.

I know there always having a go at me, just because im a fan of americas best ever president! I can take it tho im cool haha

 

[LBAYORKIE]

And that must include LBA management then too, because they seem quite sure that within the next few years, post terminal expansion, there is a real possibility of LBA serving one of the middle east hubs at least.

If only they looked on here first! They could have saved themselves so much wasted time chasing lost causes.

Youve made it clear in your ACC reports exactly what the airports aspirations are. I think some posters need to look back at them.

 

[Seasider]

The problem is that a lot of members only read a particular airport and even a particular thread, so don't know. That's why I advocate reading all threads, you will have a greater knowledge of what is happening.

 

[SierraHotel]

Ambition is not delivery. I'm well aware of LBAs ambition.

 

[White Heather]

Ambition is not delivery. I'm well aware of LBAs ambition.

I think the point is, that folk say theres no chance of these flights and seem to speak with authority. They may be proven right. But, they could be wrong too. LBA managenent are confident enough to inform the ACC without going so far as naming the airline, and they had no need to say anything at all. From experience, they don't usually say anything unless there's a realistic chance, as once its out there, snd minuted, they know they will have to update us on progress.

If, as people say, there is no chance, then clearly, our management think otherwise. I'm sure that once upon a time, similar comments were made about LBA seeing flights to Canada, or seeing 747s, or having a scheduled Islamabad service. But guess what. It happened. Flights to the Middle East could too. Let's just wait and see.

 

[Statto]

These were the top 50 busiest international routes from the North of England last year. North of England is MAN, LPL, LBA, HUY, MME and NCL. Nearly 75% of all passenger traffic from those airports is carried on these routes. The final column is LBA's market share. Where LBA has good year round frequency from two airlines, it gets up to near 20% market share. Where the airport has only Jet2 operating their low-frequency city break product to places like Paris, Barcelona, Prague, Budapest etc, then market share is much lower. 17 destinations are not currently served at all. 3 of these are Middle East connecting hubs (a market of well over 2 million) and then another raft of European hubs (Frankfurt, Munich, Istanbul etc).

To the point made by White Heather, I'm sure this how the professionals think about route development. Where are the biggest markets, where do we under-perform in those markets, and how can we use the data from the strongest performing routes to show that, with the right product, frequency etc, LBA can command an impressive market share. Personally I would look down that final column and conclude the airport needs an airline that can come in add some p2p capacity to Amsterdam, Paris, Barcelona, Prague, Lisbon, Madrid Copenhagen etc alongside growth into Turkey, Cyprus, Canary Islands.

And then its how do you tackle the lack of feed into the major hubs?. The data below tells us the total market into connecting hubs is massive. If you make reasonable assumptions about the % of connecting vs p2p traffic into the hub airports (plus throw in another 500k+ going via LHR), there's a total market or nearly 5 million passengers a year. And LBA has only about 150-200k. of that market. If 20% is a reasonable proxy for LBA's share, that would be 1 million passengers. NCL, won't be far off that I bet. So a huge market, but challenging due to slots, aircraft type etc. But it makes perfect sense to me that the airport would be doing the leg work on this because its just a huge market they aren't really serving at all.

 

[LBAYORKIE]

These were the top 50 busiest international routes from the North of England last year. North of England is MAN, LPL, LBA, HUY, MME and NCL. Nearly 75% of all passenger traffic from those airports is carried on these routes. The final column is LBA's market share. Where LBA has good year round frequency from two airlines, it gets up to near 20% market share. Where the airport has only Jet2 operating their low-frequency city break product to places like Paris, Barcelona, Prague, Budapest etc, then market share is much lower. 17 destinations are not currently served at all. 3 of these are Middle East connecting hubs (a market of well over 2 million) and then another raft of European hubs (Frankfurt, Munich, Istanbul etc).

To the point made by White Heather, I'm sure this how the professionals think about route development. Where are the biggest markets, where do we under-perform in those markets, and how can we use the data from the strongest performing routes to show that, with the right product, frequency etc, LBA can command an impressive market share. Personally I would look down that final column and conclude the airport needs an airline that can come in add some p2p capacity to Amsterdam, Paris, Barcelona, Prague, Lisbon, Madrid Copenhagen etc alongside growth into Turkey, Cyprus, Canary Islands.

And then its how do you tackle the lack of feed into the major hubs?. The data below tells us the total market into connecting hubs is massive. If you make reasonable assumptions about the % of connecting vs p2p traffic into the hub airports (plus throw in another 500k+ going via LHR), there's a total market or nearly 5 million passengers a year. And LBA has only about 150-200k. of that market. If 20% is a reasonable proxy for LBA's share, that would be 1 million passengers. NCL, won't be far off that I bet. So a huge market, but challenging due to slots, aircraft type etc. But it makes perfect sense to me that the airport would be doing the leg work on this because its just a huge market they aren't really serving at all.



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The figures for Bucharest are very impressive.

 

[LBA4EVER]

The 45% figure for bucharest clearly shows that a certain purple coloured airline could expand for sure out of LBA! The other 55% of that figure im guessing will be the LPL flights but due to no MAN interference wizz im sure could expand their routes from leeds, with good marketing an east of england base (once engine issues sorted if this is still an issue)

 

[Iron Duck]

Turkish up to 5 daily now from Manchester…. surely LBA has to come soon!?

 

[SierraHotel]

I wouldn't be overly confident that TK are even aware of LBAs existence.

 

[Aviador]

I wouldn't be overly confident that TK are even aware of LBAs existence.

Funny that because LBA shows on the drop down of Turkish Airlines ...

 

[SierraHotel]

Let's hope it translates into something.

 

[Finger66]

I wouldn't be overly confident that TK are even aware of LBAs existence.

I think as we already see Sun Express, who are a joint TK/LH venture then LBA's whereabouts and presence is fully known. The 4m plus annual pax also won't be going unnoticed.
It may not translate into anything but the awareness will be there

 

[White Heather]

I wouldn't be overly confident that TK are even aware of LBAs existence.

I would think they are, given that their CEO listed LBA as an airport they had on their expansion list for the future couple of years ago. You can absolutely guarantee too that LBA have spoken with Turkish at one or more route conferences.

 

[Finger66]

And as it seems Pegasus are quite keen on UK expansion, would TK let them steal too much of a march. They would be a perfect carrier to open up connections to that general area of the world and beyond. Especially when we can rely less and less on KL/T3 at the moment

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

I’m going to bang the Turkish drum again.

They cater for a lot more of our region, Pakistan, Iraq; Iran & the list goes on, plus Australia, Far East & Asia then EK will ever do.

It’s not to say EK can’t - they easily can. However with narrow bodies it makes the jets easier to fill and therefore offer a sustainable profitable route.

I’d like to see both … but alas I don’t think we will. If I had to pick one it would be Turkish - A321/B7378/Max 8 flights.

 

[HX3]

It’s quite depressing reading this thread. No one apparently would consider LBA unless it involves a bucket and spade route. The negativity sometimes is pervasive.

 

[Aviador]

It’s quite depressing reading this thread. No one apparently would consider LBA unless it involves a bucket and spade route. The negativity sometimes is pervasive.

The bucket and spade routes performing so well will be a good indicator as to how their route would perform too.